Swing shift: a mathematical approach to defensive positioning in baseball

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2020-09-15 DOI:10.1515/jqas-2020-0027

Elizabeth L. Bouzarth, B. Grannan, John M Harris, A. Hartley, K. Hutson, E. Morton

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引用次数: 15

Abstract

Abstract Defensive repositioning strategies (shifts) have become more prevalent in Major League Baseball in recent years. In 2018, batters faced some form of the shift in 34% of their plate appearances (Sawchik, Travis. 2019. “Don’t Worry, MLB–Hitters Are Killing The Shift On Their Own.” FiveThirtyEight, January 17, 2019. Also available at fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-worry-mlb-hitters-are-killing-the-shift-on-their-own/). Most teams use a shift that overloads one side of the infield and adjusts the positioning of the outfield. In this work we describe a mathematical approach to the positioning of players over the entire field of play without the limitations of traditional positions or current methods of shifting. The model uses historical data for individual batters, and it leaves open the possibility of fewer than four infielders. The model also incorporates risk penalties for positioning players too far from areas of the field in which extra-base hits are more likely. This work is meant to serve as a decision-making tool for coaches and managers to best use their defensive assets. Our simulations show that an optimal positioning with three infielders lowered predicted batting average on balls in play (BABIP) by 5.9% for right-handers and by 10.3% for left-handers on average when compared to a standard four-infielder placement of players.

查看原文本刊更多论文

挥棒移位:棒球中防守位置的数学方法

摘要近年来，在美国职业棒球大联盟中，防守换位策略(换位)变得越来越普遍。2018年，击球手在34%的上垒次数中面临某种形式的转变(Sawchik, Travis. 2019)。“别担心，美国职业棒球大联盟的击球手们正在自己扼杀这种转变。”2019年1月17日，FiveThirtyEight。也可在fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-worry-mlb-hitters-are-killing-the-shift-on-their-own/获得)。大多数球队都采用一种换位战术，使内场的一侧超载，并调整外场的位置。在这项工作中，我们描述了一种数学方法，可以在没有传统位置或当前移动方法限制的情况下，在整个比赛场地上定位球员。该模型使用的是单个击球手的历史数据，它保留了少于四名内野手的可能性。该模型还将风险惩罚纳入了球员的位置，如果他们离球场太远，那么额外的安打就更有可能发生。这项工作旨在为教练和经理提供决策工具，以最好地利用他们的防守资产。我们的模拟显示，与四名内野手的标准布局相比，三名内野手的最佳布局使右撇子的预测击球率(BABIP)平均降低了5.9%，左撇子平均降低了10.3%。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.