The Impact of the Coronavirus Crisis on the European Union: A Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis

Abstract

The authors approach COVID-19 as a perfect stress test for revealing integration connectivity within the European Union. The current crisis has challenged the resilience of regional integration, and reveals the economic connectivity within the integration blocks and their consolidating power. The goal of the research paper is to analyze the collective behaviour of the integrating countries during the external epidemiological crisis and their capability to respond to the manifestations of the crisis as 'an organic whole'. The authors develop the existing academic discourse on the defacto effects of integration and the relationship between the national and collective interests of the integrating countries, which has become the subject of fierce controversy during the pandemic. The research is based on the original concept of the stability of regional integration during the period of external crises associations proposed by the authors. To achieve the research goal of determining the degree of spatial correlation, the authors calculated Moran's Spatial Autocorrelation Index and the multi-factor Geary's Index. The spatial and econometric analysis of the EU countries in times of COVID-19 made the authors conclude that the initial EU's response to the pandemic reflected nationalist self-help strategies rather than joint European approach during the earlier stages of the pandemic. Nevertheless, the EU demonstrated relatively strong intraregional trade resistance and ability to mitigate the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.