Risk Analysis of the Mempawah-Sungai Duri National Road Relocation Development Project in West Kalimantan Using the Bow Tie Analysis Method

Q4 Social Sciences
Syamsu Dhuha, Putu Artama Wiguna, Institut Teknologi, Sepuluh Nopember
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The National Road Relocation Development Project in Mempawah, West Kalimantan, functions as a substitute for a national road that will later be affected by the construction of the Kijing International Port in Mempawah Regency, West Kalimantan Province. Current conditions in the field have found several problems that impede the achievement of progress, which poses several risks. This study aims to analyze the highest level of risk from several identified risks. This is why it is important to conduct a risk analysis study on the National Road Relocation Project. This research method uses a qualitative and quantitative approach, starting with the identification of risks in similar projects, then proceeding to test the relevance of risks that may occur and the impact of those risks. Data collection methods were carried out by distributing questionnaires, conducting focus group discussions, and conducting interviews. Furthermore, quantitative analysis was carried out with response scenarios and Bowtie analysis. The results of this study identified the six highest risks: conditions and field data not in accordance with the design, design changes during the project, land for work that has not been acquired, bad weather disturbances, cost overruns, and material price increases. Contingency costs incurred amount to Rp. 15,757,472,740, or 8.34% of the project value, which is Rp. 188,909,724,300.
基于蝴蝶结分析法的西加里曼丹孟帕瓦-双盖杜里国道搬迁开发项目风险分析
西加里曼丹省门帕瓦的国道搬迁开发项目,将替代一条国道,该国道将在西加里曼丹省门帕瓦县的基京国际港口建设中受到影响。该领域目前的情况出现了一些阻碍取得进展的问题,这构成了若干风险。本研究旨在分析几个已确定风险的最高风险水平。这就是为什么对国道搬迁工程进行风险分析研究是很重要的。本研究方法采用定性和定量相结合的方法,从识别类似项目中的风险开始,然后测试可能发生的风险的相关性以及这些风险的影响。数据收集方法为发放问卷、焦点小组讨论、访谈等。采用响应情景法和鲍蒂分析法进行定量分析。该研究的结果确定了六个最高风险:条件和现场数据与设计不符,项目期间设计变更,未获得工作用地,恶劣天气干扰,成本超支和材料价格上涨。所发生的应急费用为15,757,472,740卢比,占项目价值的8.34%,即188,909,724,300卢比。
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来源期刊
Journal of Social Research and Policy
Journal of Social Research and Policy Social Sciences-Sociology and Political Science
CiteScore
0.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
8 weeks
期刊介绍: Welfare states have made well-being one of the main focuses of public policies. Social policies entail, however, complicated, and sometimes almost insurmountable, issues of prioritization, measurement, problem evaluation or strategic and technical decision making concerning aim-setting or finding the most adequate means to ends. Given the pressures to effectiveness it is no wonder that the last several decades have witnessed the imposition of research-based social policies as standard as well as the development of policy-oriented research methodologies. Legitimate social policies are, in this context, more and more dependent on the accurate use of diagnostic methods, of sophisticated program evaluation approaches, of benchmarking and so on. Inspired by this acute interest, our journal aims to host primarily articles based on policy research and methodological approaches of policy topics. Our journal is open to sociologically informed contributions from anthropologists, psychologists, statisticians, economists, historians and political scientists. General theoretical papers are also welcomed if do not deviate from the interests stated above. The editors also welcome reviews of books that are relevant to the topics covered in the journal.
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