Everybody Follows the Crowd?: Effects of Opinion Polls and Past Election Results on Electoral Preferences

IF 1.7 4区心理学 Q2 COMMUNICATION

Journal of Media Psychology-Theories Methods and Applications Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI:10.1027/1864-1105/a000160

Magdalena Obermaier, Thomas Koch, C. Baden

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引用次数: 7

Abstract

Opinion polls are a well-established part of political news coverage, especially during election campaigns. At the same time, there has been controversial debate over the possible influences of such polls on voters’ electoral choices. The most prominent influence discussed is the bandwagon effect: It states that voters tend to support the expected winner of an upcoming election, and use polls to determine who the likely winner will be. This study investigated the mechanisms underlying the effect. In addition, we inquired into the role of past electoral performances of a candidate and analyzed how these (as well as polls) are used as heuristic cues for the assessment of a candidate’s personal characteristics. Using an experimental design, we found that both polls and past election results influence participants’ expectations regarding which candidate will succeed. Moreover, higher competence was attributed to a candidate, if recipients believe that the majority of voters favor that candidate. Through this attribution of competence, both information about prior elections and current polls shaped voters’ electoral preferences.

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人人都随大流?:民意调查及过往选举结果对选民偏好的影响

民意调查是政治新闻报道的重要组成部分，尤其是在竞选期间。与此同时，这种民意调查对选民的选举选择可能产生的影响一直存在争议。讨论的最突出的影响是从众效应:它指出选民倾向于支持即将到来的选举的预期赢家，并通过民意调查来确定谁将是可能的赢家。本研究调查了这种效应的潜在机制。此外，我们调查了候选人过去的选举表现的作用，并分析了这些(以及民意调查)如何被用作评估候选人个人特征的启发式线索。通过实验设计，我们发现民意调查和过去的选举结果都会影响参与者对哪位候选人将成功的期望。此外，如果收件人认为大多数选民支持候选人，那么候选人的能力就会更高。通过这种能力的归属，有关先前选举和当前民意调查的信息都影响了选民的选举偏好。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Media Psychology-Theories Methods and Applications Multiple-

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

11.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： Journal of Media Psychology (JMP) is committed to publishing original, high-quality papers which cover the broad range of media psychological research. This peer-reviewed journal focuses on how human beings select, use, and experience various media as well as how media (use) can affect their cognitions, emotions, and behaviors. Submissions must substantially advance the current state-of the art on a theoretical and/or an empirical level. To name just a few typical fields and domains of inquiry, the Journal of Media Psychology considers manuscripts dealing with research on entertainment, computer-mediated communication (including social media), human-computer interaction, e-learning, computer and video games, virtual environments, or advertising. The journal is also open to research from neighboring disciplines as far as this work ties in with psychological concepts of the uses and effects of the media. Submissions of comparative work, e.g., crossmedia, cross-gender, or cross-cultural, are encouraged. Moreover, submissions including alternative analysis procedures such as the Bayesian approach are welcome. Starting in 2015, the pre-registration of research plans will also be possible. To ensure short turn-around cycles for manuscript review and fast publication, the Journal of Media Psychology relies heavily upon electronic communication and information exchange, starting from electronic submission and continuing throughout the entire review and production process.