Geographic pattern of human mobility and COVID-19 before and after Hubei lockdown

IF 2.7 Q1 GEOGRAPHY
T. E. Chow, Yusik Choi, Mei Yang, D. Mills, R. Yue
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引用次数: 11

Abstract

ABSTRACT This research investigates how travel restrictions affect the spatiotemporal pattern of human mobility and COVID-19 confirmed cases. Based on recorded movement and Baidu mobility index, in- and out-migration were estimated to examine the geographic pattern of human mobility across many Chinese cities from Jan 1 – Feb 11 of 2020. In addition to the baseline model of city lockdown , this study also explored the time lag effect of COVID-19 incubation period before/after Jan 28 (i.e. 5 days) and Feb 6 (i.e. 2 weeks) as well. Full factorial Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) tests reviewed significant differences of migration pattern by lockdown and origin/destination, which are also significantly associated with the confirmed cases of COVID-19 as well. Specifically, human mobility dropped proportionally after the lockdown regardless of origin location, but Hubei destination was significantly lower than non-Hubei destination. The model assuming an incubation period of 5 days differentiated the differences of COVID-19 cases better than the baseline and 14 days model. Spatiotemporal cluster analysis identified multiple space-time windows that were related to migration trajectory assuming a 5–14 days incubation period. The pre-lockdown clusters due to traveler’s outflow from Wuhan to those megacities were the pathways for international transmission of COVID-19, whereas the post-lockdown clusters were partially related to the migration pattern especially within the eastern part of Hubei around Wuhan. The geographic pattern revealed from this study confirmed the presence of super spreaders that were responsible for regional spreading at the early stage and caused local outbreaks in the latter stage.
湖北封城前后人员流动与COVID-19的地理格局
本研究旨在探讨旅行限制对人类流动时空格局和新冠肺炎确诊病例的影响。根据记录的人口流动和百度流动性指数,研究人员估计了2020年1月1日至2月11日期间中国许多城市人口流动的地理格局。除了城市封锁的基线模型外,本研究还探讨了1月28日(即5天)和2月6日(即2周)前后新冠肺炎潜伏期的时滞效应。全因子方差分析(ANOVA)测试发现,封锁和出发地/目的地的迁移模式存在显著差异,这也与COVID-19确诊病例显著相关。具体而言,封锁后,无论出发地如何,人员流动性都呈比例下降,但湖北目的地明显低于非湖北目的地。假设潜伏期为5天的模型比基线和14天模型更好地区分了COVID-19病例的差异。时空聚类分析确定了与迁移轨迹相关的多个时空窗口,假设潜伏期为5-14天。封城前武汉人员外流导致的聚集性疫情是新冠肺炎国际传播的途径,封城后的聚集性疫情与武汉周边地区特别是鄂东地区的人员流动模式有一定关系。本研究揭示的地理格局证实了超级传播者的存在,超级传播者在早期负责区域传播,在后期引起局部暴发。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Annals of GIS
Annals of GIS Multiple-
CiteScore
8.30
自引率
2.00%
发文量
31
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