Risk-Based Models of Equipment Repair Management in Power Supply Systems with a Mono Consumer

Abstract

An adequate description of reliability in decision-making models for managing the restoration of its properties is a complex scientific task. Quite a lot of attention has been paid to the correct solution of this problem in various fields of technology. The article proposes and implements a probabilistic approach to calculating the circuit reliability of the power supply system using an assessment of the actual state of its main elements. The assessment of the state of the equipment of the power supply system is carried out using an integral indicator of the technical condition. This creates the basis for applying a risk-based approach to the management of maintenance and repairs to assess the consequences and feasibility of repair and restoration work of power equipment while minimizing possible damage from power outages to consumers. The article presents two methods for calculating reliability, focused on both recoverable and non-recoverable elements of the power supply system. In addition, a decision-making model for managing repairs of power equipment in power supply systems is proposed. A separate case is considered when the power supply system provides electricity to a mono-consumer, which is typical for oil and gas production. Based on the analysis of scenarios for the implementation of the risk-based approach, the influence of various degrees of severity of the consequences of failure on the assessment of decisions made is studied. The developed models and methods are illustrated by computational examples from the practice of operating electrical equipment in power supply systems with a monoconsumer