A Distribution Optimization Framework for Confidence Bounds of Risk Measures

Abstract

We present a distribution optimization framework that significantly improves confidence bounds for various risk measures compared to previous methods. Our framework encompasses popular risk measures such as the entropic risk measure, conditional value at risk (CVaR), spectral risk measure, distortion risk measure, equivalent certainty, and rank-dependent expected utility, which are well established in risk-sensitive decision-making literature. To achieve this, we introduce two estimation schemes based on concentration bounds derived from the empirical distribution, specifically using either the Wasserstein distance or the supremum distance. Unlike traditional approaches that add or subtract a confidence radius from the empirical risk measures, our proposed schemes evaluate a specific transformation of the empirical distribution based on the distance. Consequently, our confidence bounds consistently yield tighter results compared to previous methods. We further verify the efficacy of the proposed framework by providing tighter problem-dependent regret bound for the CVaR bandit.