Development of an integrated space-time database, characterizing an effects of climate change

Abstract

Currently, at the global and regional (national) levels, the expert community, as well as statesmen, have prioritized the task of practical implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (characterizing the dynamics of a development of various parameters of socio-ecological and economic systems). Achieving these goals requires serious analytical work based on a deep and comprehensive analysis of a processes taking place in various spheres, as well as the formation of an appropriate information platform, including a set of databases that adequately describe changes taking place in various spheres of state activity. However, today, in Russian practice, this tool is practically absent, which significantly complicates the qualitative and quantitative analysis, assessment and forecasting of the processes of adaptation of Russian regions (including the population living in them) to consequences of global climate change. The purpose of this study is to form a database of indicators characterizing process of adaptation of socio-ecological and economic systems of a northern regions of Western Siberia (The Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug) to global climate change. The projected database should become the basis for creating an open information resource for a wide range of users when they solve analytical and predictive tasks related to a socio-economic assessment of an impact of global climate warming on permafrost. To achieve the objectives of the study, a set of methods was used: theoretical generalization and comparison, formalization, algorithmization, structuring and grouping, economic and statistical methods (including correlation and regression analysis), cartographic method, graphical modeling method. As a result, we have formed a database representing a single, periodically updated repository containing spatio-temporal data sets characterizing processes and phenomena, on the one hand, socio-ecological and economic systems, on the other – climate change. Further work with the database assumes, on the basis of available quantitative data and methods of mathematical statistics, the identification of elements of the ecological, socio-economic systems of the KhMAO and YaNAO vulnerable to global climate change, as well as forecasting the dynamics of their (systems) transformation.