Testing for Long-Run Relation between Economic Growth and Export Earnings of Cocoa in Ghana using Co-Integration Techniques

S. Twumasi-Ankrah, E. N. Wiah
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

In this study, we explore the causal influence of export earnings of cocoa towards economic growth (i.e., gross domestic product (GDP)). The augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and the Phillips–Perron (PP) unit root tests indicate that the two series are integrated of order one, I (1). The results of the trace and the maxi-eigenvalue cointegration test based on Johansen’s procedure indicate the existence of a cointegration between export earnings of cocoa and GDP. Thus, the two variables of the study have a long-run equilibrium relationship. The vector error correction model of order two, VECM (2), was considered as the “best” model after evaluating other competing models. It is observed that, in the long-run, previous year export earnings of cocoa is positively related to economic growth. In the short run, the results revealed that the previous GDP has positive effect on current GDP; and higher export earnings of cocoa have positive effect on GDP. Feedback causality is observed between economic growth (GDP) and export earnings of cocoa. This suggests a bi-directional causality from export earnings to economic growth (GDP). Keywords : Cointegration, VECM, Johansen, ADF, Causality.
用协整技术检验加纳经济增长与可可出口收益的长期关系
在本研究中,我们探讨了可可出口收入对经济增长(即国内生产总值(GDP))的因果影响。增广Dickey-Fuller (ADF)和Phillips-Perron (PP)单位根检验表明,这两个序列是1阶、I(1)的积分。基于Johansen程序的迹和最大特征值协整检验结果表明,可可出口收入与GDP之间存在协整。因此,研究的两个变量具有长期的均衡关系。在评价了其他竞争模型后,认为二阶矢量误差修正模型VECM(2)是“最佳”模型。可以观察到,从长期来看,上一年可可的出口收入与经济增长呈正相关。在短期内,研究结果表明,前期GDP对当前GDP有正向影响;可可出口收益的增加对GDP有正向影响。经济增长(GDP)与可可出口收入之间存在反馈因果关系。这表明出口收入与经济增长(GDP)之间存在双向因果关系。关键词:协整,VECM, Johansen, ADF,因果关系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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