A time series forecasting based on ARIMA for Minqin value of output related to water resources

Abstract

For a long time, how to utilize water resources rationally has influenced Minqin economic, ecological and social benefits. Through analyzing Minqin Value of Output Related to Water Resources from 1956 to 2009, this paper determines the appropriate Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA), forecases Minqin Value of Output Related to Water Resource from 2010 to 2015. The results show that the ARIMA model is effective and forecast data can be trusted.