Regional Fertility Transition in India: An Analysis Using Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios

T. Spoorenberg, P. Dommaraju
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引用次数: 19

Abstract

This paper examines various aspects of regional fertility transition in India. Using nationally representative data from three rounds of National Family Health Surveys (NFHSs) conducted in India, we compare and contrast fertility patterns in six regions of India for the period between 1977 and 2004. To study the fertility patterns, we use synthetic parity progression ratios which, besides providing estimates for average lifetime parity, also allow for decomposition of lifetime parity by birth order. The paper also examines changes in birth intervals over time and across the six regions. The results confirm the persistence of regional differences in fertility. However, in all regions fertility is declining and it is possible that fertility rates will converge in the near future. The main reason for fertility decline in all regions is the reduction in third- and higher-order births. There has not been any significant decline in first and second births, even in regions with low fertility. In addition to the discussion of the substantive results, the paper also comments on the quality of NFHS data.
印度地区生育过渡:使用合成胎次递进比的分析
本文考察了印度区域生育过渡的各个方面。利用在印度进行的三轮全国家庭健康调查(NFHSs)的具有全国代表性的数据,我们比较和对比了1977年至2004年期间印度六个地区的生育模式。为了研究生育模式,我们使用了合成胎次递进比,它除了提供平均一生胎次的估计外,还允许按出生顺序分解一生胎次。该论文还研究了六个地区的生育间隔随时间的变化。研究结果证实了生育率的地区差异持续存在。但是,所有区域的生育率都在下降,在不久的将来生育率可能会趋于一致。所有地区生育率下降的主要原因是第三次和更高次生育的减少。即使在生育率低的地区,第一胎和第二胎的出生率也没有明显下降。除了讨论实质性结果外,本文还对NFHS数据的质量进行了评论。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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