What drives the unemployment rate in Maldives? An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach

IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS
Ali Irushad, Mohamed Asmy Bin Mohd Thas Thaker, Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Purpose – This paper examines factors that determine the unemployment rate in the Maldives. Methods – This paper uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model in capturing long and short-run associations among the chosen variables. It uses some macroeconomic variables, namely unemployment rate, population, economic growth, foreign direct investment, external debts, inflation rate, and expatriate workers. Findings – The empirical results suggest that except for expatriate workers, all the variables are significant determinants of unemployment rate in the long run. The study found that economic growth and inflation would negatively and significantly contribute to unemployment rate when they are combined. This explains the unemployment nexus which follows the Phillips curve and Okun’s law relationship provides the presence of both these hypotheses in the Maldives in the short-run and long-run. In addition, an increase in population and external debts worsens the unemployment situation in the Maldives. Although expatriate workers are not significant in the long run, the results reveal that they have a significant positive effect on unemployment in the short run. Implications – This result implies that the Maldivian government should encourage locals in the country to participate in the labor force and limit the participation of expatriate workers in an industry that has a shortage of skilled expertise. Originality – This study expands our understanding of key determinants of the unemployment rate in Maldives. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research is among the pioneer empirical study to assess the issue.
是什么导致了马尔代夫的失业率?自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法
目的-本文探讨了决定马尔代夫失业率的因素。方法-本文使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型来捕获所选变量之间的长期和短期关联。它使用了一些宏观经济变量,即失业率、人口、经济增长、外国直接投资、外债、通货膨胀率和外籍工人。研究结果-实证结果表明,除外籍工人外,所有变量都是长期失业率的重要决定因素。研究发现,当经济增长和通货膨胀同时存在时,它们会对失业率产生显著的负向影响。这解释了遵循菲利普斯曲线的失业关系,以及奥肯定律关系提供了这两种假设在马尔代夫的短期和长期存在。此外,人口和外债的增加使马尔代夫的失业情况恶化。虽然外派人员在长期内并不显著,但结果表明,他们在短期内对失业有显著的积极影响。影响-这一结果意味着马尔代夫政府应该鼓励该国的当地人参与劳动力,并限制外籍工人参与一个缺乏熟练专业知识的行业。独创性-这项研究扩展了我们对马尔代夫失业率的关键决定因素的理解。据作者所知,本研究是评估这一问题的先驱实证研究之一。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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自引率
20.00%
发文量
21
审稿时长
12 weeks
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