Determinants of Export Diversification: Evidence from Fractional Logit Estimation Model

IF 1.1 Q4 BUSINESS
Swathi. M, P. Sridharan
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

This article empirically explores the key drivers of export diversification in a large panel of 101 countries consisting of 43 high-income, 47 middle-income, and 11 low-income countries from 1995 to 2019. Considering the fractional nature of the dependent variable (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), the estimates are obtained using the fractional logit technique with a set of potential determinants of export diversification for all country samples and three sub-samples. The results reveal that human capital accumulation, GDP per capita, population, trade openness, the share of manufactured output to GDP, and FDI are important determinants of export diversification. However, the share of agriculture to GDP and official exchange rate promotes export concentration. Contrary to our all-country estimation, GDP per capita and population act as deterrents to export diversification in low-income countries. In addition, the results show that the value-added in agriculture plays a dominant role in strengthening the export structure of high-income countries. Our findings suggest that policymakers should implement and reform policies targeting human capital accumulation, trade openness, investment, and value addition in the manufacturing sector for diversifying the export structure. JEL Codes: C33, F14, J24, O1
出口多元化的决定因素:来自分数Logit估计模型的证据
本文从1995年至2019年对101个国家(包括43个高收入国家、47个中等收入国家和11个低收入国家)进行了实证研究,探讨了出口多样化的主要驱动因素。考虑到因变量(Herfindahl-Hirschman指数)的分数性质,使用分数logit技术对所有国家样本和三个子样本的出口多样化的一组潜在决定因素进行估计。结果表明,人力资本积累、人均GDP、人口、贸易开放程度、制造业产出占GDP的比重和FDI是出口多元化的重要决定因素。然而,农业在GDP和官方汇率中所占的份额促进了出口的集中。与我们对所有国家的估计相反,人均国内生产总值和人口对低收入国家的出口多样化起着阻碍作用。此外,研究结果表明,农业增加值在强化高收入国家出口结构中起着主导作用。我们的研究结果表明,政策制定者应该实施和改革针对制造业人力资本积累、贸易开放、投资和增值的政策,以实现出口结构的多元化。JEL代码:C33、F14、J24、01
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
23.10%
发文量
37
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