Quantifying the Value of Personalized Medicines: Evidence from COX-2 Inhibitors

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Forum for Health Economics and Policy Pub Date : 2013-01-01 DOI:10.1515/fhep-2013-0005

N. Sood, T. Philipson, P. Huckfeldt

引用次数: 5

Abstract

Abstract We develop a conceptual framework for estimating the value of personalized medicines. We show that personalizing medicines generates value from two sources. The first is a market-expansion effect by persons who initiate treatment due to reduced pre-treatment uncertainty about the effectiveness or side effects of treatment. The second is a market-contraction effect due to discontinuation of treatment by persons unresponsive to treatment. We apply the conceptual framework to evaluate the value of a predictive test to assess whether patients are at elevated risk for cardiac complications from COX-2 inhibitors. We find that this predictive test would yield an overall value to patients of about $16 billion per year or $1284 per likely patient.

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量化个体化药物的价值:来自COX-2抑制剂的证据

我们开发了一个概念框架来估计个体化药物的价值。我们表明，个性化药物可以从两个方面产生价值。首先，由于治疗前对治疗效果或副作用的不确定性降低，开始治疗的人会产生市场扩张效应。第二种是由于对治疗无反应的人停止治疗而产生的市场收缩效应。我们应用概念框架来评估预测试验的价值，以评估患者是否因COX-2抑制剂而出现心脏并发症的风险升高。我们发现，这种预测测试每年将为患者带来约160亿美元的总体价值，或每位潜在患者1284美元。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Forum for Health Economics and Policy Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

1.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Forum for Health Economics & Policy (FHEP) showcases articles in key substantive areas that lie at the intersection of health economics and health policy. The journal uses an innovative structure of forums to promote discourse on the most pressing and timely subjects in health economics and health policy, such as biomedical research and the economy, and aging and medical care costs. Forums are chosen by the Editorial Board to reflect topics where additional research is needed by economists and where the field is advancing rapidly. The journal is edited by Katherine Baicker, David Cutler and Alan Garber of Harvard University, Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford University, Dana Goldman of the University of Southern California and RAND Corporation, Neeraj Sood of the University of Southern California, Anup Malani and Tomas Philipson of University of Chicago, Pinar Karaca Mandic of the　University of Minnesota, and John Romley of the University of Southern California. FHEP is sponsored by the Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics at the University of Southern California. A subscription to the journal also includes the proceedings from the National Bureau of Economic Research''s annual Frontiers in Health Policy Research Conference. Topics: Economics, Political economics, Biomedical research and the economy, Aging and medical care costs, Nursing, Cancer studies, Medical treatment, Others related.