Prediction of a photovoltaic system performance using cumulative frequency curves of radiation

Abstract

The system performance of stand-alone photovoltaic systems is analysed. From the hourly radiation data for Bangkok (from 1984 to 1987) the cumulative frequency curves of radiation are generated and a typical meteorological day (TMD) is created each year. The system performance is determined using both the TMD radiation and the actual radiation values. The comparison results show that the TMD method can be applied for the sizing of stand-alone photovoltaic systems. The storage batteries of realistic sizes usually exhibit a daily cyclic variation in state-of-charge, with constant load consumption. Only very large and unrealistic sizes of batteries show a seasonal variation in state-of-charge. This is the fact that prompted the attempt to predict the system performance for a season by using a single representative day (TMD) of that season. Apart from giving reliable results, the TMD method significantly reduces the computation time and simplifies the process.