Hedgehogs vs. Foxes: Improving the Accuracy of Predictions

Abstract

ank you to the many readers who commented on my column, “Oil at USD 20 per Barrel: Can It Be?” in the October issue of Oil and Gas Facilities. e future oil price is clearly on everyone’s mind. When I wrote the article, I thought that generating a con dent prediction was hopeless. Based on your comments and suggestions, articles on energy scenario evaluations by consultant Jorge Leis, a news program on forecasting by journalist Fareed Zakaria, and a book on superforecasting by professor Philip Tetlock, I have changed my mind. I believe that oil price can be determined with reasonable con dence, and the key to such forecasting is aggregative contingent estimation (ACE).