Impact of Climate Change on Cereal Crops Production in Ethiopia

Abstract

Climate change adversely affected agricultural productivity in developing countries. This study aimed to explore the effects of this climate change, particularly on cereal crops production in Ethiopia. The study employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach to the co-integration with an error correction term. ARDL technique was selected due to its stationarity assumption and unbiased estimates of its long-run coefficients. The estimated model justifies the existence of a long-run relationship between cereal crops production, climate change variables (temperature and precipitation), and other explanatory variables. Precipitation has a positive and significant effect on cereal crops production both in the long and short runs, while temperature change has a significant negative effect. In the long run, cereal crops production was positively and significantly affected by arable land, fertilizer consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions, while in the short run, labor force participation has a positive and significant effect on cereal crops production. The study results confirmed that there is a long-run relationship between cereal crops production and climate change variables. In agriculture, research and development should focus on varieties of cereal crops that can tolerate high temperatures. Climate Resilient Green Economy should have to strengthen in the country. All countries should have to work hand-in-hand to mitigate the effect of climate change.