Does Okun’s Law Exist in Nigeria? Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

IF 2.4 Q2 ECONOMICS

Contemporary Economics Pub Date : 2017-06-30 DOI:10.5709/CE.1897-9254.232

N. Abu

引用次数: 30

Abstract

This study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing technique to examine whether Okun’s law exists in Nigeria during 1970-2014. In addition, this study considers the role of oil prices in the Nigerian economy. The empirical results indicate that a cointegrating or long term relationship exists between the unemployment rate, economic growth and oil prices. In addition, the results demonstrate that in Nigeria, in the long term, unemployment has a negative and significant effect on economic growth, and oil prices have a significant and positive effect on economic growth. The coefficient of unemployment (0.18%) for this study is far less than the result reported by Okun and other studies that focused on developed countries. This suggests that the Okun coefficient is not only unstable but varies for different countries, and does not remain constant for Nigeria. However, policymakers should take steps to reduce unemployment to enhance economic growth in Nigeria. O04,

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奥肯定律在尼日利亚存在吗?来自ARDL边界测试方法的证据

本研究采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)界检验技术检验1970-2014年尼日利亚是否存在奥肯定律。此外，本研究还考虑了石油价格在尼日利亚经济中的作用。实证结果表明，失业率、经济增长与油价之间存在协整关系或长期关系。此外，研究结果表明，在尼日利亚，从长期来看，失业对经济增长具有显著的负向影响，而油价对经济增长具有显著的正向影响。本研究的失业系数(0.18%)远低于奥肯等以发达国家为研究对象的研究报告的结果。这表明奥肯系数不仅不稳定，而且在不同的国家有所不同，在尼日利亚也不是恒定的。然而，政策制定者应该采取措施减少失业，以促进尼日利亚的经济增长。O04,

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来源期刊

Contemporary Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

9.50%

发文量

审稿时长

24 weeks

期刊介绍： The mission of the Contemporary Economics is to publish advanced theoretical and empirical research in economics, finance, accounting and management with the noticeable contribution and impact to the development of those disciplines and preferably with practice relevancies. All entirety of methods is desirable, including a falsification of conventional understanding, theory building through inductive or qualitative research, first empirical testing of a theory, meta-analysis with theoretical implications, constructive replication that clarifies the boundaries or range of a theory for theoretical research as well as qualitative, quantitative, field, laboratory, meta-analytic, and combination for an empirical research. This clear priority for comprehensive manuscripts containing a methodology-based theoretical and empirical research with implications and recommendations for policymaking does not exclude manuscripts entirely focused on theory or methodology. Manuscripts that raise significant, actual topics of international relevance will be highly appreciated. The interdisciplinary approach including – besides economic, financial, accounting or managerial –also other aspects, is welcomed.