Future Prospects of the Gravity Model of Trade: A Bibliometric Review (1993–2021)

Abstract

The gravity model of trade (GMoT) has become popular among practitioners and academics lately, essentially because of its power to provide a comprehensive explanation of real-world trade data. Complementing this are Viner’s concepts of trade creation (TC) and trade diversion (TD), which have been crucial in the development of a conceptual framework for evaluating the trade implications of a trade agreement. This article attempts to conduct a bibliometric analysis for estimating TC and TD using the GoMT. It has been observed that the TC and TD estimations following the use of the GoMT are few. Additionally, TC and TD estimations for free trade agreements (FTA) have been conducted, but not so much for regional trade agreements (RTA). As a result, a broad range of research can be conducted, especially given the recent dynamic environment for new RTAs. A bibliometric analysis was undertaken to evaluate the current level of research on GMoT. The search was conducted through Scopus where 648 documents were retrieved and examined. The article indicates key findings and discusses future research prospects. JEL: F10, F13, F14