An Analysis of European Public Opinion on the Russo-Ukrainian War and its Determinants

Abstract

This study examines public opinion in European countries on the Russo-Ukrainian war and the EU’s sanctions against Russia. In particular, it investigates the different perceptions of issues related to the war in Ukraine in terms of security and economic implications and seeks to explain the differences in public opinions among European countries. Leading public opinions in Europe strongly condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and agree to impose strong sanctions. However, there are different attitudes in public opinion depending on the expected economic damage and energy mix. Countries concerned about significant economic damage due to rising energy prices tend to prefer measures that take the economic impact into account rather than value-oriented hard-line responses. Additionally, countries with a high proportion of fossil fuel use also show the same tendency. On the other hand, countries that can endure economic damage and better respond to energy crises with a high share of renewable energy prefer a hard-line response. Countries with a favorable image of Russia have a relatively solid public opinion insisting on considering the economic situation, while countries with a pro-American tendency demand a hard-line response based on values. In terms of diplomacy and security, it was found that the more countries feel the security threat from the war, the more public opinion supports a value-centered policy stance and insists on military aid to Ukraine. In particular, the three Nordic countries, which have a long tradition of neutrality, judge Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a threat to fundamental European values and are more in favor of military aid to Ukraine than other countries. This study provides significant implications for forecasting the EU’s response to Russia. For the EU to maintain a strong stance against Russia, it is essential to secure solidarity among the members. The EU will need to coordinate the different economic burdens of its Member States and fully reflect the varying security awareness of European countries on its common security and defense policy. These efforts are necessary to maintain a solid and coherent policy stance on the war in Ukraine.