Infectious Disease Modeling: Creating a Community to Respond to Biological Threats

Abstract

The rise of global economies in the 21st century, the rapid national and international movement of people, and the increased reliance of developed countries on global trade, all greatly increase the potential and possible magnitude of a worldwide pandemic. New epidemics may be the result of global climate change, vector-borne diseases, food-borne illness, new naturally occurring pathogens, or bio-terrorist attacks. The threat is most severe for highly communicable diseases. When rapidly spreading microparasitic infections coincide with the rapid transportation, propagation, and dissemination of the pathogens and vectors for infection, the risks associated with emerging infectious disease increase. We discuss the use of publicly-available technologies in assisting public health officials and scientists in protecting populations from emerging disease or in implementing improved response measures. We illustrate possibilities using the SpatioTemporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM) that was developed to run on the Open Health Framework (OHF) created by the Eclipse Foundation in 2004. An illustration regarding the spread of the influenza H1N1 virus from Mexico to the United States via air travel in Spring 2009 is briefly discussed.