A country-specific COVID-19 model

Abstract

Abstract Objectives To dynamically measure COVID-19 transmissibility consistently normalized by population size in each country. Methods A reduced-form model enhanced from the classical SIR is proposed to stochastically represent the Reproduction Number and Mortality Rate, directly measuring the combined effects of viral evolution and population behavioral response functions. Results Evidences are shown that this e(hanced)-SIR model has the power to fit country-specific empirical data, produce interpretable model parameters to be used for generating probabilistic scenarios adapted to the still unfolding pandemic. Conclusions Stochastic processes embedded within compartmental epidemiological models can produce measurables and actionable information for surveillance and planning purposes.