Oil Spill Modeling for the Enbridge Line 3 Replacement Program with Response for Planning, Preparedness, and Environmental Purposes

Abstract

Oil spill trajectory and fate modeling and analyses were performed to support evaluation of the downstream movement, behavior, timing, and potential ecological and human health risks resulting from hypothetical releases of crude oil from the proposed Enbridge Line 3 Replacement Program. The investigation involved assessing multiple hypothetical pipeline releases into terrestrial and aquatic environments. The quantitative assessment of the three-dimensional movement (i.e. trajectory) and behavior (i.e. fate) of released oil used site-specific environmental and geographic conditions, including seasonal and hydrographic information. The main questions being addressed included: What is the expected spatial extent, timing, and magnitude of hydrocarbon contamination from an unmitigated release?How do changes in the release location and release volume affect the ultimate trajectory, fate, and number of potentially susceptible resources.How does the inclusion of modeled response options change predictions (i.e. unmitigated vs. response mitigated scenarios)? The 2-dimensional OILMAPLand and 3-dimensional SIMAP computational oil spill models were used to assess hypothetical crude oil release scenarios into the Mississippi River near Palisade, MN. Results were presented in an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) and an Assessment of Accidental Releases (AAR) presented to the Minnesota Department of Commerce Energy Environmental Review and Analysis (MN DOC EERA) and the Pollution Control Administration (MN PCA) as both oral and written testimony. The findings demonstrated realistic predictions of containment and collection efficiencies following an accidental release and aided regulators in the decision-making process for the project.