Determining Parameters of Functioning of Passenger Transport Routes by Means of Computer Simulation of Processes

Abstract

The efficiency of the functioning of urban passenger transport routes has been studied in the paper. It has been established that the functioning of urban passenger transport routes takes place in a non-isolated environment, which affects the system from the moment of its formation and can lead to discrepancy between the calculated and actual efficiency of the system. As a result of the fucntioning indicator analysis of the passenger transportation route, it has been revealed that the environment of the route functioning affects the efficiency in a complex manner. Consequently, the mutual influence of one factor on others should be taken into account. Performance evaluation should be carried out for the entire route system, and not within the separately considered subsystem. As a result of the analysis of such key indicators as income, fuel costs, lubricants, maintenance and repair, discrepancies have been found between the planned values of indicators and actual data. It is determined that the distribution function of the random variables of these indicators is described by a normal law. At the final stage of the study, regularities in the influence of the road transport enterprise parameters on the probability of investment return have been obtained. The proposed integrated approach to determining the efficiency of urban passenger transport routes is based not only on the established, but also on the stochastic parameters that occur during the functioning of these routes. An algorithm has been developed for determining the efficiency of urban route passenger traffic, which takes into account the interrelation of income and expenses, modern ideas about the patterns of change in the prpbability of development of optimistic, pessimistic and intermediate scenarios for improvement of route efficiency events. The algorithm is based on formalized dependences of the change in time of the probabilities of income and expenses which are taken into account in the operation process of urban passenger transport routes with their various parameters.