Company Profit Prediction Based On Forecasting Of Port Throughput Using Time Series-Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System

Abstract

As a maritime country, ports play an important role in economic development in Indonesia. Throughput is an important factor affecting Port Profits. This prediction is needed in an effort to find out the company's prospects, help estimate the long-term profitability of representatives, predict earnings, and estimate risk in investment. In this research, forecasting data throughput will be carried out, such as container traffic, number of ships, export traffics, goods traffic, animal flow and passenger traffic for the next year using Time Series-Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (TS-ANFIS) as an input parameter in the decision support system. Before predicting the benefits of the port using the ANFIS method, principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to reduce parameters that did not sufficiently affect the profits of the port. The data used are time series data from 2009 to 2018. From the system built it is expected to be able to provide good results in predicting the value of port throughput using TS-ANFIS and to predict profit values using the ANFIS method. The best results from profit prediction using ANFIS obtained R2 of 0.947, RMSE of 28524582.39, MAPE of 14.74% and MAAPE of 0.145. From the prediction results, it can be used as a reference for company projections in investing, managing cash flow, managing assets and global bonds. KeywordsANFIS, PCA, Time Series, Throughput, Port, Profit.