Military Expenditures and World Economic Growth under Hybrid Warfare Conditions

Abstract

The article examines the impact of the dynamics of military expenditures, public debt, arms exports on the economic growth of the six countries (US, China, Russia, Israel, Ukraine, Moldova). The paper empirically tested the hypothesis of the possibility of further maintaining the positive macroeconomic effects in the process of confronting and persistent ‘hybrid’ military conflicts in either ‘hot’ or ‘frozen’ phases. The model characterizes the effects of factors and their change over time as well as features of the aggregate and the specificity of the development of individual objects. This allowed us to construct an object-dynamic regression model to determine the dependence of the development of national economies, namely GDP growth rates, for countries in a state of ‘hybrid’ war. The definition of these dependencies provides the opportunity to make recommendations on the use of adequate models of forecasting military expenditure for the country, which aims to achieve the goals of sustainable development under the increasing military threats.