The Sugar Beet Production Forecast in the Republic of Moldova

Abstract

Abstract The production of the sugar beet in the Republic of Moldova (RM) in the last ten years decreased considerably. The world and Moldovan sugar consumption is increasing, therefore making sugar beet an important crop for sugar production. Sugar beet production, as one of the main industrial crops with a significant share in earnings, has an impact on the manufacturing sector of the country. Based on the crop significance, the scope of this research is to forecast the sugar beet production. Five years of forecast were computed for sugar beet production (Yt) in the RM. The research was conducted by the help of data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics. Six time series models were run to find the best solution for Yt forecast. Three of the models were considered the most appropriate. These are: Exponential function trend, Quadratic function trend and Holt’s method. The AIC (Akaike Information Criterion), SBC (Schwarz Bayesian Criterion) and R2 (coefficient of determination) explained that 77,5% of data showed to be optimal for Yt forecast in Holt’s method. As a result, the forecast was based on Holt’s methodology for time series with trend. Consequently, it was found that Yt will decrease by approximately 15 thousand tonnes by 2022. However, as the data is based on past assumptions, there still exists hope that the production of sugar beet will increase. The same is considered for the average yield, which at the moment is twice lower than in the European Union countries.