Universal community nucleic acid testing for COVID-19 in Hong Kong reveals insights into transmission dynamics: a cross-sectional and modelling study.

Abstract

BACKGROUND Testing of an entire community has been used as an approach to control COVID-19. In Hong Kong, a universal community testing programme (UCTP) was implemented at the fadeout phase of a community epidemic in July to September 2020. We described the utility of the UCTP in finding unrecognised infections, and analysed data from the UCTP and other sources to characterise transmission dynamics. METHODS We described the characteristics of people participating in the UCTP and compared the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases detected by the UCTP versus those detected by clinical diagnosis and public health surveillance (CDPHS). We developed a Bayesian model to estimate the age-specific incidence of infection and the proportion of cases detected by CDPHS. RESULTS 1.77 million people, 24% of the Hong Kong population, participated in the UCTP from 1 to 14 September 2020. The UCTP identified 32 new infections (1.8 per 100,000 samples tested), consisting of 29% of all local cases reported during the two-week UCTP period. Compared with the CDPHS, the UCTP detected a higher proportion of sporadic cases (62% versus 27%, p <0.01) and identified 6 (out of 18) additional clusters during that period. We estimated that 27% (95% credible interval: 22%, 34%) of all infections were detected by the CDPHS in the third wave. CONCLUSIONS We reported empirical evidence of the utility of population-wide COVID-19 testing in detecting unrecognised infections and clusters. Around three quarters of infections have not been identified through existing surveillance approaches including contact tracing.