Unbiased Grey Verhulst Model and Its Application

Abstract

As to the inherent simulant error of grey Verhulst model, this article presents unbiased grey Verhulst model. Recursive solutions are given under two initial conditions of the unbiased model. The results show the complete coincidence of the prediction and simulation to the original data of S-shaped curve generated form has achieved. The unbiased grey Verhulst model presented in this article has not only completely eliminated the inherent simulant error of the traditional model, but also avoided the jumping errors from the differential equation to differential equation in traditional grey modeling. Case analysis shows that the simulation and prediction accuracy in traditional modeling has been significantly improved by unbiased grey Verhulst model.