The 2018 Pennsylvania Midterm Election

Abstract

This article uses pre-election survey, post-election survey, voter registration, and election data to interpret the outcomes of the 2018 midterm elections for governor, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House of Representatives in Pennsylvania. This analysis shows that the results of the 2018 midterm races in Pennsylvania were nationalized. Feelings about the president’s performance drove voter interest and turnout, and also factored into the choices that voters made in the gubernatorial, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House races. Voter preferences in each race followed the same pattern: even after accounting for partisanship and ideology, those who were dissatisfied with President Trump’s performance were more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate. The results suggest that the 2018 midterm results were a repudiation of the Trump presidency, but not a return to the state’s pre-2016 politics.