Dış Ticaretin Türkiye’den Almanya’ya Giden Göçmenler Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Due to developments in the field of transportation and communication, communication and technological facilities have sped up the migration movements between countries by reducing the cost of migration. Additionally, as a result of developments in facilities and technology provided by globalization, the trade volume of the world is increasing rapidly. This study tested the impact of foreign trade on migrants from EXTENDED ABSTRACT Migration and foreign trade are two important components of globalization. The relationship between migration and foreign trade has been investigated in the literature for many years. The relationship between foreign trade and migration is put forward as a substitution relationship in the context of traditional foreign trade theories. According to the Heckscher – Ohlin theory, countries obtain a comparative advantage in the trade of goods that requirefactor abundance. (Heckscher,1949). The migration flow from one country to another means more labor inflows into that country. While wages rise in the migrant-sending country (due to the drop in labor supply), wages fall in the receiving country. Thus, factor prices converge between the two countries. This convergence eliminates the pre-immigration comparative advantage and has a dissuasive effect on trade. (Samuelson, 1969). Instead of the “constant return to scale” assumption of the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson theorem, Krugman’s (1980) theoretical assumptions take into account that markets produce under imperfect competition and are based on the contribution of firm externality and economies of scale to countries production structures. Within these assumptions, the positive effect of migration emerges on trade. (Markusen, 1983; Gould, 1994). The substitution relationship between migration and foreign trade has led to the use of trade as a policy instrument to reduce migration. The use of trade policies to reduce migration dates back to the 1970s. Political authorities have recommended that more import be made from those countries in order to reduce the flow of immigrants from southern and eastern countries. This view is compatible with the theoretical framework that defines the substitution relationship between foreign trade and migration (Schiff, 1996). activity in the context of network and human capital. While the first group give priority to theoretical foundations, the latter focuses on empirical analysis. (Gould, 1994; Eichegreen & Irwin, 1996; Head & Ries, 1998; Dunlevy and Hutchinson, 1999-2001; Girma & Yu, 2002; Rauch & Trindade, 2002; Wagner et al., 2002; Combes et al., 2002; Faustino & Leitão, 2008; Zarzosoa et al.,2009; Egger et al., 2011). The work of Özekicioğlu & Soyyiğit (2019) is in line with the results of Emirhan (2014). According to the results of both studies, no significant relationship was found between migration and foreign trade. Both of these studies emphasized the importance of qualitative variables, such as the quality of the immigrants affecting trade, the level of education, and the sector in the relationship between migration and foreign trade. Turkey to Germany from the years 1988-2018 with the ARDL bounds testing approach for the first time. Hereby, it is aimed to make an original contribution by the use of this method. This study sought to answer the question of what the impact of Turkey’s import and export has been on outgoing immigrants from Turkey to Germany from 1988-2018. The hypotheses of this study are that Turkey’s imports and exports to Germany are increasing the migratory flows between Turkey and Germany and that foreign trade and migration are complementary between Turkey and Germany. According to the results of the study, what has been found is a cointegration relationship between Turkey’s foreign trade with Germany and immigrants from Turkey to Germany. Moreover; If there is a 1% increase to Turkey’s exports to Germany, the immigrant flow increase 0.30% to Germany from Turkey. If there is a 1% increase to Germany’s imports to Turkey, there is a 0.21% increase in the immigrant flows to Germany from Turkey.