Bayesian correlated models for assessing the prevalence of viruses in organic and non-organic agroecosystems

IF 0.7 4区数学 Q4 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE

Sort-Statistics and Operations Research Transactions Pub Date : 2017-06-21 DOI:10.2436/20.8080.02.52

Elena Lázaro, C. Armero, L. Rubio

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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Cultivation of horticultural species under organic management has increased in importance in recent years. However, the sustainability of this new production method needs to be supported by scientific research, especially in the field of virology. We studied the prevalence of three important virus diseases in agroecosystems with regard to its management system: organic versus non-organic, with and without greenhouse. Prevalence was assessed by means of a Bayesian correlated binary model which connects the risk of infection of each virus within the same plot and was defined in terms of a logit generalized linear mixed model (GLMM). Model robustness was checked through a sensitivity analysis based on different hyperprior scenarios. Inferential results were examined in terms of changes in the marginal posterior distributions, both for fixed and for random effects, through the Hellinger distance and a derived measure of sensitivity. Statistical results suggested that organic systems show lower or similar prevalence than non-organic ones in both single and multiple infections as well as the relevance of the prior specification of the random effects in the inferential process.

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评估有机和非有机农业生态系统中病毒流行的贝叶斯相关模型

近年来，在有机管理下栽培园艺物种的重要性日益增加。然而，这种新的生产方法的可持续性需要科学研究的支持，特别是在病毒学领域。我们研究了有机与非有机、有温室与无温室农业生态系统中三种重要病毒病的流行情况。流行率通过贝叶斯相关二元模型进行评估，该模型将同一地块内每种病毒的感染风险联系起来，并根据logit广义线性混合模型(GLMM)进行定义。通过基于不同超先验情景的敏感性分析来检验模型的稳健性。根据边际后验分布的变化，通过海灵格距离和推导的灵敏度测量，对固定效应和随机效应进行了推断结果的检验。统计结果表明，在单次和多次感染中，有机系统的患病率低于或类似于非有机系统，以及在推理过程中随机效应的先验规范的相关性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Sort-Statistics and Operations Research Transactions 管理科学-统计学与概率论

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： SORT (Statistics and Operations Research Transactions) —formerly Qüestiió— is an international journal launched in 2003. It is published twice-yearly, in English, by the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Idescat). The journal is co-edited by the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Universitat de Barcelona, Universitat Autonòma de Barcelona, Universitat de Girona, Universitat Pompeu Fabra i Universitat de Lleida, with the co-operation of the Spanish Section of the International Biometric Society and the Catalan Statistical Society. SORT promotes the publication of original articles of a methodological or applied nature or motivated by an applied problem in statistics, operations research, official statistics or biometrics as well as book reviews. We encourage authors to include an example of a real data set in their manuscripts.