Prospects for the natural uranium world market

Abstract

Various scenarios for development of the world uranium industry are considered, and an assumption is made of a high probability of the rapid growth scenario, according to the IAEA, which assumes an annual growth rate of the total nuclear power plants (NPPs) capacity of 2-2.5%. Based on this forecast, an assessment is made of capabilities of the uranium world mineral base to meet the NPPs needs in the nuclear fuel. It is demonstrated that only the restoration of production at temporary closed down mining enterprises, the growth of output at existing mines, and using secondary sources of uranium guarantee a sufficient amount of the raw materials to meet the demand for uranium in the next decade. Moreover, the shortage of raw materials for nuclear fuel in the near future may again be replaced by its excess. However, by the end of the current or early next decade, due to the depletion of the resource base of some operating mines, including Four Mile and Cigar Lake in Canada, the capacities of mining enterprises will be insufficient to meet the fuel needs of NPPs. A shortage of uranium may appear again, that will grow rapidly in the future. This will mean a new round of growth in prices for natural uranium, which, in turn, will stimulate an increase in uranium production throughout the world and will expand the prospects for the implementation of projects for the development of new uranium deposits in Russia, primarily Argunskoe and Zherlovoe in the Streltsovskoe uranium ore region