The Evaluation of Regional Instability to Climate Change Based on the PSA Model—A Case Study of Philippines

Abstract

In recent years, the ever-changing climate has caused natural disasters in various countries to occur frequently. Climate change has become one of the factors that have caused this country to be vulnerable. This article mainly quantitatively studies how climate change affects regional instability. A comprehensive indicator evaluation method is used to establish a PSA model. The country's vulnerability is defined in terms of the dimensions of pressure, sensitivity, and adaptive capability. This article selected Philippines as the research object, and based on the data processing by PSA model, we obtained the Fragile State Index (FSI) of Philippines in the past ten years. It has found that the flooding in 2012 has made it more vulnerable to Philippines and the results of the analysis are in line with the actual situation. Then, the K-means clustering algorithm is used to get a tipping point (0.5) that can define whether it is fragile or not. What's more, the critical point is verified to be reasonable. Finally, under the guidance of the data of the three dimensions and first-class indicators, the intervention measures that the country should take to address climate change are proposed to reduce regional instability.