Long-term prediction of nitrogen dioxide concentrations using seasonal decomposition

Abstract

At higher concentrations of nitrogen dioxide, which is the most toxic nitric oxide, chronic bronchitis and asthmatic patients are particularly affected. For the city of Nova Gorica, Slovenia, we predicted monthly concentrations for 12 months in the coming year 2022. The first version of the forecast was performed with the classic SARIMA method - the general multiplicative seasonal model. A new method followed, here ARIMA, forecasting from the seasonally adjusted time series. For seasonal decompositions, we used Census Method 1 in the first version and Manual Seasonal Decomposition in the second version. According to the RMSE criteria, the forecast with separate seasonal decomposition models is 50% better than the basic general multiplicative seasonal model.