Factors Affecting Load Pattern in a Tropical Electric Power Distribution Area

Abstract

Electric load forecasting is affected by numerous factors and these vary from one geographical location to another. The ability to identify the factors contributing to the consumption pattern in an area will help in designing an effective and exact forecasting model that will contribute to an effective energy dispatch. In this study, topical weather and various time factors contributing to the power consumption pattern of Ayobo Power Distribution Area of Lagos state, Nigeria were considered. These time factors are categorized as Working Time, Leisure Time and Sleeping Time while the weather season is categorized into dry and raining season. The results show that the load begins to rise from the baseline load and goes to its peak during the working periods and fall considerably for the other two periods. Also, the general power consumption is affected significantly by the two main weather seasons of the year in Nigeria namely wet and dry season. The cooling degree days do also affect the power consumption. It is therefore necessary for these metrics to be considered when designing load forecasting model for this area and thus Nigeria in general.