A Novel Hybrid Automaton Framework for Multi-Phase Epidemic Modelling

Abstract

A framework for the multi-phase epidemic modelling of SEIARD (Susceptible-Exposed-symptomatic Infectious-Asymptomatic infectious-Recovered by immunity or by vaccination-Dead due to the disease) subpopulations is produced with switching transmission rate, basic reproduction ratio and vaccination strategy. The key novel feature of our model is that we reproduce the different phases of the evolution of the infectious disease by using a hybrid automaton with different discrete locations corresponding to each of the phases of the disease. This is a general modelling framework applicable to the spreading of infectious diseases. We show how the proposed model works with the simulation of different scenarios.