Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows in Nigeria

Q3 Business, Management and Accounting

International Journal of Management and Enterprise Development Pub Date : 2023-05-12 DOI:10.20414/jed.v5i3.7192

M. Rasaki, E. O. Oyedepo

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Purpose — This study assesses the symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows in Nigeria.Method — The study employs quarterly data and covers the period 1995q1 to 2020q4. The data were sourced from International Financial Statistics (IFS) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) websites. The paper applies both linear ARDL and non-linear ARDL (NARDL) models. These methods are employed to evaluate the symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility.Result — The results from linear ARDL model show that exchange rate volatility has only significant short-run effect on export while it has both short-run and long run effects on the imports. The findings from the non-linear ARDL suggest that exchange rate volatility has neither short run nor long run asymmetric effects on exports. However, the non-linear ARDL model reveals short run and long run asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on imports. The findings show that increase in volatility reduces imports while decrease in volatility boosts imports.Contribution — Previous studies have only investigated the symmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade balance in Nigeria. This study contributes to the literature by examining the symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows, using the GARCH-based measure of exchange rate volatility.

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汇率波动对尼日利亚贸易流动的不对称影响

目的-本研究评估了尼日利亚汇率波动对贸易流动的对称和非对称影响。方法:本研究采用季度数据，涵盖1995年第一季度至2020年第四季度。数据来源于国际金融统计(IFS)和尼日利亚中央银行(CBN)网站。本文采用了线性ARDL和非线性ARDL (NARDL)模型。这些方法被用来评估汇率波动的对称效应和不对称效应。结果——线性ARDL模型的结果表明，汇率波动对出口只有显著的短期影响，而对进口既有短期影响，也有长期影响。非线性ARDL的研究结果表明，汇率波动对出口既没有短期不对称效应，也没有长期不对称效应。然而，非线性的ARDL模型揭示了汇率波动对进口的短期和长期不对称影响。研究结果表明，波动性的增加减少了进口，而波动性的减少则促进了进口。贡献-以前的研究只调查了尼日利亚汇率波动对贸易平衡的对称影响。本研究通过使用基于garch的汇率波动度量来检验汇率波动对贸易流动的对称和非对称影响，从而为文献做出贡献。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Management and Enterprise Development Business, Management and Accounting-Business and International Management

CiteScore

1.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： IJMED is a major international research journal dedicated to business development strategy and entrepreneurship policy as well as management processes in an international and cross-cultural context. IJMED provides a venue for high quality papers including theoretical research articles, evidence-based case studies and practical applications seeking to explore best practice and investigate strategies for rapid growth management in SMEs. IJMED has a history of contributing to the academic literature, providing conceptual and practical insights and generating innovative ideas for organizational enterprise. Topics covered include: -SMEs'' start-up development, corporate venturing- Technological opportunities, new firm creation, valuation- Technological adoption, technology transfer, technopreneurship- Joint ventures/alliances, franchising and corporate ownership- Business incubator development strategy- Economic and social entrepreneurship- Virtual coaching services for SMEs- SMEs and entrepreneurship policy- Start-up cognitions/behaviours- Halo effect, technology licensing- Long-run technology investments- Knowledge management/technology strategy in SMEs- Managing rapid growth, accelerating competitive effectiveness- Strategy decision speed and SME performance- Entrepreneurs in non-profit sector.