Debris Risk Evolution And Dispersal (DREAD) for post-fragmentation modeling

Abstract

The Debris Risk Evolution And Dispersal (DREAD) tool facilitates the 3D modeling and risk analysis of the fragmentation cloud after a collision or explosion. This tool uses the NASA Standard Breakup Model and other breakup models “under the hood” that are capable of estimating the Probability Density Function (PDF) of induced relative velocity, mass and area of fragments as a function of object size. DREAD can be further enhanced by incorporation of alternate, more detailed hypervelocity simulations that enforce conservation laws (conservation of mass, angular and linear momentum and kinetic energy). We also discuss our recent incorporation of an improved technique to normalize risk by the expansion volume occupied by debris fragments. DREAD is then used to examine the likely debris fragmentation cloud created by the Fengyun 1C (FY1C) antisatellite (ASAT) intercept test conducted by the Chinese in 2007 and the risk it subsequently posed to other spacecraft and the cloud’s evolution and dispersal.