Evaluation of alternative grain stabilization programmes for Nigerian food security

Chris Agbo, Richard Phillips
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Abstract

Annual fluctuations in Nigerian grain supplies are large and uncertain. The amelioration of these fluctuations through reserve programmes to achieve reasonable stability is technically feasible.

This paper analyses the effectiveness of two alternative grain reserve programmes in meeting specific stabilization goals in Nigeria. The pattern of deviations in grain supplies served as the basis for analysis of the stabilization potentials of the alternative programmes.

The results show that the alternative programme involving stabilizing international trade is more cost-effective than the one that does not. The use of stabilizing trade would have resulted not only in reduced grain storage capacities but also in an improved rate of capacity utilization as well as substantial annual cost savings in operating reserves. A West African Regional grain reserve programme to backstop national grain reserves would be economically beneficial to Nigeria.

评价尼日利亚粮食安全的其他粮食稳定方案
尼日利亚粮食供应的年度波动很大,而且不确定。通过储备方案来改善这些波动,以达到合理的稳定,在技术上是可行的。本文分析了两种可供选择的粮食储备方案在实现尼日利亚具体稳定目标方面的有效性。粮食供应偏差的模式是分析备选方案的稳定潜力的基础。结果表明,涉及稳定国际贸易的替代方案比不涉及稳定国际贸易的方案更具成本效益。使用稳定贸易不仅会减少粮食储存能力,而且还会提高能力利用率,并在业务储备方面每年节省大量费用。一项支持国家粮食储备的西非区域粮食储备方案在经济上对尼日利亚有利。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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