Does IFRS information on tax loss carryforwards and negative performance improve predictions of earnings and cash flows?

Sandra Dreher, Sebastian Eichfelder, Felix Noth
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Abstract

We analyze the usefulness of accounting information on tax loss carryforwards and negative performance to predict earnings and cash flows. We use hand-collected information on tax loss carryforwards and corresponding deferred taxes from the International Financial Reporting Standards tax footnotes for listed firms from Germany. Our out-of-sample tests show that considering accounting information on tax loss carryforwards does not enhance performance forecasts and typically even worsens predictions. The most likely explanation is model overfitting. Besides, common forecasting approaches that deal with negative performance are prone to prediction errors. We provide a simple empirical specification to account for that problem.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11573-023-01147-7.

国际财务报告准则》关于税损结转和负绩效的信息是否能改善对收益和现金流的预测?
我们分析了有关税损结转和负面业绩的会计信息对预测盈利和现金流的有用性。我们使用了从德国上市公司的《国际财务报告准则》税务脚注中手工收集的有关税损结转和相应递延税款的信息。我们的样本外测试表明,考虑税收损失结转的会计信息并不能提高业绩预测,通常甚至会使预测结果变差。最有可能的解释是模型过度拟合。此外,处理负业绩的常见预测方法容易产生预测误差。我们提供了一个简单的经验规范来解释这个问题:在线版本包含补充材料,可查阅 10.1007/s11573-023-01147-7。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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