Factors of Export Diversification: Empirical Analysis of Russian Industrial Regions

IF 0.5 Q3 AREA STUDIES
R. Vasilyeva, O. Mariev, V. Voytenkov, A. Urazbaeva
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Oil and gas dependence and the volatility of their prices is currently a serious challenge for the Russian economy. Coincidently, export revenues from oil and gas products are the main source of the federal budget. Export diversification can contribute to risk reduction for the Russian economy by increasing the share of products from other industries in the export structure. In this regard, the present study examines the determinants of export diversification in Russian industrial regions using econometric modelling methods. To this end, the Herfindahl and Theil indices for 97 export groups were calculated. It is hypothesised that the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as the sanctions imposed by Western states against Russia are the main factors of export diversification in industrial regions. Simultaneously, natural resource extraction is assumed to significantly increase the concentration of exports in the regions. To test this hypothesis, panel data of 50 Russian industrial regions for the period 2001-2019 were analysed. The quantile regression approach was applied to solve the heteroscedasticity problem. Three groups of regions were distinguished according to their level of diversification: regions with a high level of export diversification (Q10-Q30), with an average level of diversification (Q40-Q60), with a low level of export diversification (Q70-Q90). The research findings show that the development of small and medium-sized enterprises contributes to export diversification in Russian industrial regions. While the sanctions did not have a significant impact on export diversification, regional potential and natural resource extraction increase the concentration of exports. The obtained study results complement the existing literature on export diversification in Russia, and contribute to the development of policy implications.
出口多元化的影响因素:俄罗斯工业区的实证分析
对石油和天然气的依赖及其价格的波动目前是俄罗斯经济面临的严峻挑战。巧合的是,石油和天然气产品的出口收入是联邦预算的主要来源。出口多样化可以增加其他工业产品在出口结构中的份额,从而有助于减少俄罗斯经济的风险。在这方面,本研究使用计量经济模型方法审查了俄罗斯工业区出口多样化的决定因素。为此,计算了97个出口组别的Herfindahl和Theil指数。假设中小企业的发展以及西方国家对俄罗斯的制裁是工业地区出口多样化的主要因素。同时,假定自然资源的开采会大大增加这些地区出口的集中度。为了验证这一假设,分析了2001年至2019年期间俄罗斯50个工业区的面板数据。采用分位数回归方法解决异方差问题。根据多元化程度将区域划分为出口多元化程度高的区域(Q10-Q30)、出口多元化程度一般的区域(Q40-Q60)、出口多元化程度低的区域(Q70-Q90)。研究结果表明,中小企业的发展有助于俄罗斯工业区出口多元化。虽然制裁对出口多样化没有重大影响,但区域潜力和自然资源开采增加了出口的集中度。所获得的研究结果补充了关于俄罗斯出口多样化的现有文献,并有助于制定政策含义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.80
自引率
20.00%
发文量
23
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