{"title":"Improving Site-Dependent Wind Turbine Performance Prediction Accuracy Using Machine Learning","authors":"S. Barber, F. Hammer, A. Tica","doi":"10.1115/1.4053513","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n Data-driven wind turbine performance predictions, such as power and loads, are important for planning and operation. Current methods do not take site-specific conditions such as turbulence intensity and shear into account, which could result in errors of up to 10%. In this work, four different machine learning models (k-nearest neighbors regression, random forest regression, extreme gradient boosting regression and artificial neural networks (ANN) are trained and tested, firstly on a simulation dataset and then on a real dataset. It is found that machine learning methods that take site-specific conditions into account can improve prediction accuracy by a factor of two to three, depening on the error indicator chosen. Similar results are observed for multi-output ANNs for simulated in- and out-of-plane rotor blade tip deflection and root loads. Future work focuses on understanding transferability of results between different turbines within a wind farm and between different wind turbine types.","PeriodicalId":44694,"journal":{"name":"ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems Part B-Mechanical Engineering","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"7","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems Part B-Mechanical Engineering","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4053513","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
Abstract
Data-driven wind turbine performance predictions, such as power and loads, are important for planning and operation. Current methods do not take site-specific conditions such as turbulence intensity and shear into account, which could result in errors of up to 10%. In this work, four different machine learning models (k-nearest neighbors regression, random forest regression, extreme gradient boosting regression and artificial neural networks (ANN) are trained and tested, firstly on a simulation dataset and then on a real dataset. It is found that machine learning methods that take site-specific conditions into account can improve prediction accuracy by a factor of two to three, depening on the error indicator chosen. Similar results are observed for multi-output ANNs for simulated in- and out-of-plane rotor blade tip deflection and root loads. Future work focuses on understanding transferability of results between different turbines within a wind farm and between different wind turbine types.