Probabilistic indicators of imperfect inspections used in modeling condition-based and predictive maintenance

IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL
A. Raza, V. Ulansky
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

This study proposes mathematical models for assessing the probabilistic indicators of imperfect inspections conducted when performing condition-based and predictive maintenance. The inspections used in mentioned types of maintenance differ in decision rules regarding system operability at the time of checkup. Contrary to the previous studies, we present the decision rule for each type of inspection on the time axis, which allows the formulation of the set of mutually exclusive events at discrete times. The correct and incorrect decisions correspond to true-positive, false-positive, true-negative, and false-negative events. We propose general expressions for computing the probabilities of possible decisions for both types of inspection. The paper introduces the effectiveness indicators of condition-based and predictive maintenance such as average operating costs, total error probability, and a posteriori probability of failure-free operation. We illustrate the developed approach by calculating the probabilities of correct and incorrect decisions using a specific stochastic deterioration process. The results of the calculations verify that probabilities of correct and incorrect decisions for both types of inspection are very substantially time-dependent despite the large number of published studies where these probabilities are independent of time.
不完善检查的概率指标在基于状态和预测性维护建模中的应用
本研究提出了数学模型,用于评估在执行基于状态和预测性维护时进行的不完美检查的概率指标。上述维护类型中使用的检查在检查时关于系统可操作性的决策规则方面有所不同。与以往的研究相反,我们在时间轴上提出了每种检查类型的决策规则,这允许在离散时间内制定互斥事件集。正确和不正确的决策对应于真阳性、假阳性、真阴性和假阴性事件。我们提出了计算两种检查的可能决策概率的一般表达式。本文介绍了基于状态和预测性维修的有效性指标,如平均运行成本、总错误概率和无故障运行的后验概率。我们通过使用特定的随机退化过程计算正确和错误决策的概率来说明开发的方法。计算结果证实,尽管大量已发表的研究表明这些概率与时间无关,但这两种检查类型的正确和不正确决策的概率在很大程度上与时间有关。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
19.00%
发文量
81
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Risk and Reliability is for researchers and practitioners who are involved in the field of risk analysis and reliability engineering. The remit of the Journal covers concepts, theories, principles, approaches, methods and models for the proper understanding, assessment, characterisation and management of the risk and reliability of engineering systems. The journal welcomes papers which are based on mathematical and probabilistic analysis, simulation and/or optimisation, as well as works highlighting conceptual and managerial issues. Papers that provide perspectives on current practices and methods, and how to improve these, are also welcome
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