The Impact of Structure Change on Copper Prices

Abstract

This paper characterizes quarterly LME copper price fundamentals from 1995 to 2011 by analyzing the transformation of the market mechanism based on structural change perspective. Using chow test for structural change based on the least square multiple regression, we divide the price fluctuation into: Stable price period (1995Q3-1999Q2), Low stable price period (1999Q3 – 2003Q3) and Price fluctuation period (2003Q4 – 2011Q2). The results show the existence of structural breaks disproves the investigation of the full sample period as a whole. In different structural breakpoints the main drivers of copper prices changes and their impact are significantly different. Moreover, the paper examines the role of speculation in copper price fluctuations.