Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation of the QUENCH-02 Experiment Simulation Using the ASYST Code

Abstract

Uncertainty and sensitivity methods are increasingly used in safety analyzes of nuclear power plants to address the unreliability of input data, numerical models and, in general, the lack of knowledge regarding certain physical phenomena, in determining safety margins and acceptance criteria. The ASYST code, developed as part of an international nuclear technology ASYST Development and Training Program (ADTP) managed by Innovative Systems Software (ISS), is used to perform an uncertainty analysis of the QUENCH-02 experiment conducted at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. The code uses a probabilistic methodology based on the propagation of input uncertainties. The QUENCH facility contains electrically heated PWR fuel rod simulators and the aim of the experiment is to examine hydrogen source term and the behavior of the fuel rod cladding during core reflood. For selected input parameters, such as steam/water flow, electrical power and other relevant boundary conditions, it is necessary to define their probability density functions. Input databases are then prepared for individual calculations based on the selected confidence level and confidence interval. The number of performed calculations is 60, large enough to ensure at least 95% coverage of expected output results and uncertainty limits. The results of the calculations are compared with the experimental measurements. The Pearson correlation coefficient is used to obtain correlation between the input uncertain parameters and the output data. Sensitivity analyses cover the influence of variations in the heater electrical power and the steam flow rate on the hydrogen production and the maximum cladding temperature.