Reducing Unjust Convictions: Plea Bargaining, Trial, and Evidence Disclosure

Abstract

We develop a dynamic model of a criminal case, from arrest through plea bargaining and (possibly) trial, allowing for the potential discovery of exculpatory evidence by prosecutors (who choose whether to disclose it) and defendants. We consider three regimes: (1) no disclosure required; (2) disclosure only required before trial; and (3) early disclosure required from arrest onward. These regimes have complex distributional consequences for the defendants. We find that innocent defendants ex ante prefer early disclosure whereas guilty defendants prefer disclosure only before trial. We also explore some of the social costs attributable to the regimes (JEL K4, D82, D73).