The Meaningfulness of Statistical Significance Tests in the Analysis of Simulation Results

International journal of agent technologies and systems Pub Date : 2016-01-01 DOI:10.4018/IJATS.2016010102

K. G. Troitzsch

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Thisarticlediscussesthequestionofwhethersignificancetestsonsimulationresultsaremeaningful atall.Itisalsoarguedthatitistheeffectsizemuchmorethantheexistenceoftheeffectiswhat matters.Itisthedescriptionofthedistributionfunctionofthestochasticprocessincorporatedinthe simulationmodelwhichisimportant.Thisisparticularlywhenthisdistributionisfarfromnormal, whichisparticularlyoftenthecasewhenthesimulationmodelisnonlinear.Tothisend,thisarticle usesthreedifferentagent-basedmodelstodemonstratethattheeffectsofinputparametersonoutput metricscanoftenbemade“statisticallysignificant”onanydesiredlevelbyincreasingthenumber ofruns,evenfornegligibleeffectsizes.Theexamplesarealsousedtogivehintsastohowmany runsarenecessarytoestimateeffectsizesandhowtheinputparametersdetermineoutputmetrics. KeywoRdS Cumulative Periodogram, Deduction, Microspecification, Multilevel Model, Random Number Generator, Statistical Significance Level, Stochastic Process, Validity

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统计显著性检验在仿真结果分析中的意义

Thisarticlediscussesthequestionofwhethersignificancetestsonsimulationresultsaremeaningful atall。Itisalsoarguedthatitistheeffectsizemuchmorethantheexistenceoftheeffectiswhat很重要。Itisthedescriptionofthedistributionfunctionofthestochasticprocessincorporatedinthe simulationmodelwhichisimportant。Thisisparticularlywhenthisdistributionisfarfromnormal, whichisparticularlyoftenthecasewhenthesimulationmodelisnonlinear。Tothisend，thisarticle usesthreedifferentagent-basedmodelstodemonstratethattheeffectsofinputparametersonoutput metricscanoftenbemade " statisticallysignificant " onanydesiredlevelbyincreasingthenumber ofruns，evenfornegligibleeffectsizes。Theexamplesarealsousedtogivehintsastohowmany runsarenecessarytoestimateeffectsizesandhowtheinputparametersdetermineoutputmetrics。关键词累积周期图，演绎，微规格，多层模型，随机数生成器，统计显著性水平，随机过程，效度

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International journal of agent technologies and systems

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