Change Point Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission in Bangladesh

Abstract

Background: COVID-19 pandemic is recognized as a significant threat to human health in 2020 in Bangladesh. Without emergence of effective medicine and vaccine it is very difficult to control the transmission of the COVID-19. Thus, identifying and monitoring the trajectory in the COVID-19 pandemic continuously is very important to assess the action taken to contain this pandemic and to have a further decision. Methods and Material: In this context, this study tries to find out the trend of daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Bangladesh. The 174 days’ daily data have been taken from the website of worldometer Bangladesh from 10 March to 30 August, 2020 for the analysis. To analyze the trends and to identify significant changes in trends joinpoint regression analysis has been used. Results: The number of cases increased by the rate of 4.98 percent per day in Bangladesh, however, from 11th June to 30th August i.e. for 81 days, the growth rate is found negative means we observed a decline in the COVID-19 cases per day with the rate of -0.6 percent. Conclusions: Evidence suggests that there is an impact of lockdown that slow down the spread of COVID-19 daily cases in Bangladesh.