Comparative Study of the Identification Methods of the Management System of the Day-Ahead Market of Polish Energy Market S.A.

Abstract

Nowadays, identification and neural methods are used more and more often in modeling IT forecasting systems in addition to analytical methods. Six characteristic models used to forecast the Day-Ahead Market system functioning as a transaction management system at the Polish Power Exchange (POLPX) and the Nord Pool Spot market have been selected for comparative analysis. The research was preceded by a detailed discussion of modern criteria used to assess the quality of model fitting to the system, namely: effectiveness, efficiency, and robustness. In the literature, there are two main groups of system modeling methods, namely time series modeling methods and identification modeling methods, including neural modeling methods. Modeling usually results in such models as parametric models and artificial neural networks learned neural models of the Day-Ahead Market, as well as time series models, among others. In the comparative analysis, special attention was paid to the accuracy of the obtained models concerning the system. It has been pointed out that the studied solutions used to measure the accuracy of modeling criteria such as accuracy of fit or efficiency, and did not use the modeling efficiency, which is very important in IT forecasting systems for such large markets as the Day-Ahead Market of POLPX. The search for the best market models, including identification models of the Day-Ahead Market operation that can be used in electricity price forecasting is a very important issue both from the point of view of algorithmic solutions and economical solutions.